Young Stars to Watch: Under-23 Players With the Best xG Numbers

The 2026 World Cup will be played by players in their prime — but the tournament’s most compelling subplot will be the emergence of a new generation of stars. We identified the 10 under-23 players whose statistical output at club level makes the strongest case for a breakthrough summer in North America.

The Methodology

Our rankings combine three core metrics drawn from the 2025–26 club season:

• xG per 90 minutes — Expected goals, isolating finishing quality from volume
• Progressive passes per 90 — Ball progression, measuring creative influence
• Duel success rate — Physical and technical competitiveness in 1v1 situations

The Top 10

1. Endrick (Brazil) — Age 19

xG/90: 0.61 | Progressive passes/90: 3.2 | Duel success: 58%

The most statistically advanced teenager in world football. Endrick’s xG rate at senior level is extraordinary for his age — only Erling Haaland at the equivalent stage of his career produced comparable numbers. Brazil will use him primarily as an impact substitute in the group stage, but his numbers suggest he is capable of starting from the quarter-finals onward.

2. Lamine Yamal (Spain) — Age 18

xG/90: 0.44 | Progressive passes/90: 6.8 | Duel success: 61%

The progressive passes figure is the standout number here. At 18, Yamal is already one of the most prolific ball progressors in European football. His direct dribbling creates chances more efficiently than any other teenager in the top five leagues.

3. Warren Zaïre-Emery (France) — Age 20

xG/90: 0.29 | Progressive passes/90: 7.1 | Duel success: 64%

A central midfielder whose progressive passing numbers are elite at any age. France’s midfield has a succession plan, and Zaïre-Emery is the statistical centrepiece of it. His duel success rate is the highest among all midfielders in Ligue 1 aged under 23.

4. Mathys Tel (France) — Age 20

xG/90: 0.58 | Progressive passes/90: 2.9 | Duel success: 55%

Tel’s xG rate is second only to Endrick among under-23 forwards. Primarily a finisher, his off-the-ball movement and penalty box intelligence are reflected in his expected goals numbers. France’s attacking depth means his route to the starting lineup is competitive, but his statistics make him impossible to ignore.

5. Pedri (Spain) — Age 23

xG/90: 0.31 | Progressive passes/90: 8.3 | Duel success: 62%

At the upper edge of the under-23 qualification, Pedri’s progressive passing numbers are the highest of any midfielder at this World Cup. His metronome influence on Spain’s build-up play cannot be captured in any single metric — but the combination of his numbers makes a compelling statistical case for him being the tournament’s best midfielder.

6. Kobbie Mainoo (England) — Age 20

xG/90: 0.22 | Progressive passes/90: 5.9 | Duel success: 66%

Mainoo’s duel success rate is the highest of any player in our top 10 — an elite number that explains his ability to win the ball and immediately transition into attack. England’s midfield options are competitive, but the data makes a strong case for Mainoo starting.

7. Nico Williams (Spain) — Age 22

xG/90: 0.49 | Progressive passes/90: 4.1 | Duel success: 59%

The younger Williams brother has statistically outperformed Inaki this season. His xG rate from wide positions is exceptional — only Kylian Mbappé produces more expected goals from left wing at elite level in Europe.

8. Julio Enciso (Paraguay) — Age 21

xG/90: 0.41 | Progressive passes/90: 3.8 | Duel success: 57%

The dark horse entry. Enciso plays for one of the weaker nations on this list, but his individual numbers are elite. Paraguay’s expanded berth in the 48-team format gives him a World Cup stage — and his statistics suggest he will not be wasted on it.

9. Rayan Cherki (France) — Age 21

xG/90: 0.38 | Progressive passes/90: 5.6 | Duel success: 56%

France’s problem with Cherki is an embarrassment of riches — but his numbers this season make him impossible to leave off the plane. His combination of xG and progressive passing is unique: he produces both as a single player, making him a wildcard option capable of unlocking a deep defence.

10. Antonio Nusa (Norway) — Age 19

xG/90: 0.36 | Progressive passes/90: 4.4 | Duel success: 60%

Norway did not qualify for 2026, which is the only reason Nusa features at number 10 rather than higher. His raw statistical output at club level is the most exciting of any teenager in Scandinavia since Ole Gunnar Solskjær. A player to file away for 2030.

Statistics tell a story, but World Cups write their own. History is full of players who exceeded their data — and players whose numbers promised more than the tournament delivered. The 2026 edition will produce its own surprises.